Is the Concho Valley on Track for Another Record Hot Summer?

SAN ANGELO – The National Weather Service office in San Angelo is predicting afternoon high temperatures over 100 degrees for the next ten days with no end in sight and the city may be on track for a record hot summer.  

In the intense drought summer of 2011, San Angelo saw a record 100 days of temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 degrees.  The longest string of days over 100 degrees stretched from July 2, 2011 to July 29, 2011.  Here's what the NWS San Angelo wrote about the hot summer of 2011: 

"Records fell like flies in 2011 at Mathis Field in San Angelo.  After a slightly below normal January, average monthly temperatures (the average of the highs and lows for each day) were above the normal values for each month from February through November, despite one of the strongest arctic outbreaks in nearly 30 years arriving with the beginning of February.  The records began showing up frequently during the spring.  The average temperature during the meteorological spring months of March through May set a record for the warmest on record (since 1907).  San Angelo experienced its first 100 degree day of the year on April 9 (earliest on record is April 6); an omen of things to come!  Temperatures really began to heat up in May with a high temperature of 110 degrees reached on May 28.  This set a new record for the warmest May temperature but fell one degree shy of San Angelo's all-time warmest temperature of 111 degrees.

Maximum temperatures were 10-12 degrees above normal throughout the month of June, with highs topping 100 degrees on 26 of the 30 days. San Angelo recorded highs equal to or in excess of 105 degrees on 11 days throughout the month.  Overnight lows averaging nearly 75 degrees helped to boost the average monthly temperature to 88.6 degrees.  Not only did this set the record for the warmest June on record, but it also set the record for the warmest of ANY month on record at San Angelo.

The oppressive temperatures continued through July with an average temperature even warmer than that of June.  The average monthly temperature in San Angelo for July was 89.6 (a full degree warmer than June) degrees, thanks in large part to 29 days of triple digit heat.  Thus, the warmest month on record established in June 2011 stood for only one month before being surpassed by July 2011. The heat persisted through the month of August as well.  We saw high temperatures of 100 degrees or warmer on 28 days during the month of August with a brief respite from the heat during the middle of the month thanks to some very welcome rainfall.  However, this break did little to alleviate the long term heat wave as the average August temeprature ended at a stifling 89.7 degrees. Amazingly, this broke the record set in July 2011 for the warmest month on record (third month in a row!!!).  What this means is that in 104 years of record keeping, the record for warmest month in San Angelo was set three times in consecutive months.  The statistical significance cannot be overstated.

The meteorological summer (June through August) was obviously the warmest on record since we set all time records each month during that period.  The average temperature during this three month period was 89.3 degrees.  The previous record for the warmest meteorological summer was 85.8 degrees, set in 1910.  In other words, the San Angelo summer bested 100 year old seasonal record by 3.5 degrees.  The hundred degree temperatures continued into September with the final triple digit reading coming in on September 27 (104 degrees!).  The 100 degree day records are discussed in a separate section below.

October and November continued the trend of above normal temperatures with sporadic falling records.  However, a noticeable pattern change began to occur late in the year, resulting in increasing moisture and temperatures closer to normal.  The average temperature for the month of December was actually below normal, ending the year in a fashion similar to it's beginning.  However, I do not think that many will forget the months in between that resulted in the record heat and historic drought.

The average temperature in 2011 for San Angelo set a standard that may never be equalled.  The average temperature for the year was 69.3 degrees.  The previous mark for the warmest year on record was 67.7 degrees (dating back to 1943).  It is worth noting that the 10 warmest years on record were all bunched within 0.7 degrees of each other, but 2011 came in at 1.6 degrees warmer than the previous mark."  

The long term forecast for San Angelo shows above average temperatures and below average rainfall for at least the next 30 days.  Traditionally there has been a bit of a respite around the Independence Day Holiday weekend in early July, but it's a little early to tell.  

This is an interesting and potentially serious weather situation heading into the weekend.  

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