Spooky: 'October Surprise' Could Come Late on Election Night

OPINION – National news pundits on Tuesday interviewed Democrat operatives in Washington, D.C. and they both warned that results on election night could be too close to call.  They also stated as fact that it's 'normal' for large numbers of ballots to be turned in late in the evening favoring one candidate. They were citing the 2020 election surprise that Trump was leading when many states quit counting ballots at midnight and by the next morning, thousands of ballots, all for Biden, showed up in critical swing states giving him the win.  

With early voting for the 2024 U.S. presidential election underway, both Democrats and Republicans are expressing concerns about election integrity, reflecting a growing trend of skepticism toward electoral outcomes that has escalated in recent years. Each party, at different times, has questioned the legitimacy of election results, citing issues ranging from voter suppression to widespread fraud, casting doubt on the trust Americans have in the electoral process.

Could the warnings from the liberal media and progressives about election night be foreshadowing that they don't think Kamala Harris can win and that they have a plan to ensure her victory late election night?

Historical Context of Election Disputes

In recent history, contested elections have sparked national debates. After the 2016 election, many Democrats questioned the legitimacy of Donald Trump’s victory due to Russian interference. A 2017 report from U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia had engaged in a campaign to influence the election, leading to accusations that Trump's campaign may have colluded with foreign agents. Though the investigation led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found insufficient evidence of conspiracy, many Democrats remained suspicious. Hillary Clinton stated in a 2019 interview, "He knows he’s an illegitimate president."

Four years later, following the 2020 election, Republicans, led by then-President Trump, cast doubt on the results when Joe Biden won the presidency. Trump repeatedly claimed that widespread voter fraud had occurred, despite numerous audits and court cases rejecting those claims. Trump's refusal to concede, culminating in the January 6 Capitol riot, reflected deep divisions in the GOP. A Pew Research poll in 2021 found that 70% of Republicans did not believe Biden’s win was legitimate, while Democrats overwhelmingly accepted the result.

2024: New Election, Same Doubts?

As the 2024 election approaches, the lingering skepticism remains, with both parties adopting increasingly polarized narratives on election security. Republicans, emboldened by Trump's continued influence, remain vocal about concerns over mail-in ballots, early voting procedures, and potential fraud. Many in the GOP are pushing for tighter voter ID laws, shorter early voting windows, and restrictions on absentee voting, claiming these measures are necessary to secure elections. As Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) recently stated, "We need to make sure the American people know their vote counts and isn't being diluted by illegal voting."

On the other hand, Democrats are focused on combating voter suppression. They argue that Republican-led efforts to restrict voting access, particularly in battleground states like Georgia and Arizona, are designed to disenfranchise minority voters and skew the electorate. In response to new voting laws passed by Republican state legislatures, President Joe Biden condemned the efforts, calling them “an assault on the right to vote, an assault on democracy.”

Stacey Abrams, a prominent Democrat and voting rights advocate, who ran for governor of Georgia in both 2018 and 2022, has been a key voice on the issue. After her narrow loss in 2018, she refused to concede, citing voter suppression as a reason for her defeat. “I did not challenge the outcome of the election,” Abrams clarified in a 2021 interview, “but I will challenge a system that permitted voters to be denied their franchise.”

2024: Will Trust in the System Endure?

As of mid-2024, candidates on both sides are expressing tentative concerns about the upcoming election results. Former President Trump, the Republican frontrunner, has already claimed that “the only way we lose is if the election is rigged,” echoing language from his 2020 campaign. In contrast, Biden and other Democratic leaders are framing their concern around ensuring voter access, with Biden calling for voters to “overwhelm the system with turnout.”

Experts worry that a repeat of the post-2020 dispute is likely, regardless of which party prevails. Political analyst Amy Walter notes, “The American public has been primed to question the results of elections—especially in close races. This lack of trust isn’t going away anytime soon.”

Polling data reflects a growing bipartisan erosion of trust in elections. A recent Gallup poll found that only 56% of Americans are confident that their votes will be accurately counted in 2024, a significant drop from over 80% a decade ago. While distrust is most pronounced among Republicans, particularly those loyal to Trump, Democrats are also wary, especially when it comes to new state-level voting laws they view as suppressive.

The Future of U.S. Election Integrity

Election officials are preparing for the worst. Many fear that another disputed election, especially one as closely contested as 2020, could lead to further political unrest. Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican who stood firm against Trump’s claims in 2020, has urged candidates and voters alike to have confidence in the system. “There are always going to be accusations, but our job is to show transparency, accuracy, and fairness,” he said in a recent interview. “We cannot allow misinformation to undermine the bedrock of our democracy.”

Whether the American people will trust the outcome of the 2024 election remains to be seen. What is clear is that the growing partisan divide over election integrity could have long-term consequences for the health of American democracy. Both parties appear prepared to contest results they do not favor, leaving many voters wondering whether the peaceful transfer of power—a cornerstone of the American political system—can endure.