SAN ANGELO, TX-- March Madness has truly lived up to its name with only two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds left in the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
The tournament started off with seven Texas schools, a record-tying mark for most schools participating in the event from one state. Houston, Stephen F. Austin State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Christian, Texas Southern and Texas Tech all made the field of 68 in 2018.
Texas Southern lost to North Carolina Central as part of the First Four play-in games. TCU was knocked off by 11-seed Syracuse in the first round. Texas Tech eliminated SFA in the same round before beating Florida in the second round. Texas couldn't hold on to a double-digit lead against Nevada in an overtime loss in the first round. Houston topped San Diego State in the first round of the West Region before losing on a heartbreaking, buzzer-beating three pointer to Michigan in the second round. Texas A&M knocked off Providence before dominating the North Carolina Tar Heels in the second round.
So Texas A&M (7) and Texas Tech (3) are the remaining Texas schools in the tournament. Which team has the best opportunity to win a National Championship?
First off, with 16-seed University of Maryland-Baltimore County knocking off overall 1-seed Virginia for the first time ever in the men's tournament, anything can happen this year so there's no telling how accurate these theoretical scenarios will play out.
However, when looking at the bracket, Texas A&M has a favorable path to the Final Four in San Antonio if they're able to get past the University of Michigan in the Sweet 16. Also in the West Region are 9-seed Florida State and 4-seed Gonzaga. The winner of the Michigan/Texas A&M game will get the winner of that FSU/Gonzaga game in the elite eight.
On the right hand side of the bracket, in the East Region, Texas Tech has to get past 2-seed Purdue in the Sweet 16. Awaiting the Red Raiders in the Elite Eight, should they beat Purdue, would be either 2016 National Champ Villanova or West Virginia, who beat Texas Tech two out of their three matchups this season. For what it's worth, the Red Raiders would likely get Duke or Kansas, two tournament blue bloods, in the semifinals on March 31.
Tech is staring at more of a gauntlet than A&M.
Matchup wise, Texas A&M will be forced into some offensive sets they're uncomfortable in by Michigan. The Wolverines are playing some of the best defense in the tournament by allowing an average of 55 points against and holding opponents to 34.5% shooting while averaging 62.5 points on offense and a 39.6% mark from the field through two games. However, the same was said of UNC, who the Aggies beat 86-65 in the second round. The Aggies boast a 79.5 scoring average while holding opponents to 67 points. If this becomes a defensive game, the Wolverines will have the upper hand.
Texas Tech gets a Purdue team that has scored and average of 75 points in their two games while allowing and average of 60.5 against 15-seed Cal State-Fullerton and 10-seed Butler. Tech had two great tests in 14-seed SFA and 6-seed Florida. Yes, the Lumberjacks, who beat LSU in the regular season, were a great test because of how fundamentally sound they were and the pressure they put on Texas Tech in the 70-60 Red Raider win on Thursday night. Florida is a blue blood in the SEC and will always be a tough team to beat. That means Tech is battled tested going into their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2005.
However, their odds don't look too great with Villanova, West Virginia, Kansas and Duke still on the board on the right side of the bracket.
With that being said, Texas Tech should still reach the Final Four while Texas A&M may not even make it past the Sweet 16.
But let's reiterate that ANYTHING can happen this year, including an all-Texas championship game in the Alamo City.
Comments
Unfortunately Sam,as much as I hate to admit it (and you probably hate to admit it too), the Texas team with the best chance to win a national championship in basketball this year is West Texas A&M. Their men's team is in the DII Final Four and plays Ferris State on Thursday for a chance to advance to the national championship game on Saturday.
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