Can August Pfluger Beat the Odds Tuesday? Midland Observers Doubt a Candidate for Congress from San Angelo Can

SAN ANGELO, TX — “I really think we can win this thing without a runoff,” August Pfluger said Sunday evening. He wasn’t being overconfident, rather he has his team figuring out a pathway to 50 percent plus one vote majority that will seal the Republican nomination and avoid a costly runoff with either runner-up, Bandon Batch or J. Ross Lacy, both from Midland. Based on fundraising, those two candidates appear to be the strongest behind Pfluger.

A four-way race for sheriff has juiced the turnout in Midland. Pfluger said based on his endorsements and fundraising results in the Permian Basin, his campaign will have a strong showing in Midland and Ector Counties, but adding to the Batch and Lacy campaigns’ attrition of votes for him, there is also Odessa’s Jamie Berryhill who has earned the endorsement from the House Freedom Fund, the funding arm of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.

Midland’s early in-person voting and mail-in ballot count is 13,281 of which 11,657 are in the Republican primary. There were 85,421 registered voters in Midland County for the November 2019 election. In Ector County, where Odessa is located, 6,696 have voted early or by mail, 5,410 are Republicans.

The total Republican primary vote count out of the Permian Basin is 17,067.

In Hood County, where Granbury is located, there are 42,274 registered voters where 7,346 voted early and 6,478 of those votes were in the Republican primary. There, the hero of the White Settlement church shooting, Jack Wilson, is running in a crowded field for commissioner, precinct 3. There is also a contested race for sheriff. Pfluger said he is confident he is running strong in Hood County.

Tom Green County, where Pfluger’s hometown of San Angelo is, 8,731 of 67,305 registered voters have cast their ballots in person and by mail. The office does not break out Republican and Democratic primary voters.

Crunching numbers, Pfluger estimates to win without a runoff, 7,000 more votes have to appear in Tom Green County on Tuesday. In the 2016 primary, where the Republican presidential race was whittled down to Trump versus Cruz by the time of the election, Tom Green County produced 13,015 total election day votes, 11,066 for Republicans and 1,949 for the Democratic primary. Those numbers indicate that 7,000 more voters on Tuesday in Tom Green County aren’t out of reach. But Pfluger doesn’t have a contested presidential election to help with turnout.

By the way, Ted Cruz tromped Trump in the March 1, 2016 Republican primary in Tom Green County 43.33 percent to Trump’s 25.12 percent.

In Midland, the Reporter-Telegram reported over the weekend that opponent J. Ross Lacy said it was mathematically impossible for Pfluger to win the election with 50 percent plus one vote, avoiding a runoff.

In addition to Pfluger, J. Ross Lacy, J.D. Faircloth and Brandon Batch of Midland, Jamie Berryhill and Casey Gray of Odessa, Ned Luscombe of Gardendale, Robert Tucker of Comanche, Wesley Virdell of Brady and Gene Barber of Colorado City are vying for the nomination. It’s a crowded field of 10 candidates.

Pfluger also failed to receive the endorsement of billionaire oilman and conservative firebrand Tim Dunn. Dunn, financier of the controversial statewide conservative lobbying organization called Empower Texans, wrote an editorial all but accusing Pfluger of being a Mitt Romney Republican.

“I would not have voted to impeach Donald Trump. No way. It was a political witch-hunt I wanted no part of,” said Pfluger, dismissing all allegations he does not share the district's conservative values. Pfluger was a loyal Trump supporter and staffer for the Trump NSC where the impeachment charges originated.

“There have been many interesting revelations and developments surrounding August Pfluger…” Dunn began in his guest editorial. Dunn’s primary worry with Pfluger is that he is not endorsed by the House Freedom Caucus like Berryhill is. Pfluger’s response is he will join the Freedom Caucus if asked and, “If it serves the best interest of the citizens of CD-11.”

Berryhill, who Dunn praised in his editorial, earned the scorn of the left wing press two weeks ago when he posted a politically incorrect statement comparing illegal immigration to rape.

“A nation without borders is like a woman, raped and defiled, her precious value pillaged and taken,” Berryhill stated on Facebook. The outrage prompted Berryhill to remove the post, but not before screenshots were shared with Midland TV station CBS7. When confronted about the statement, Berryhill doubled down. “Our nation is like women. If our borders are being encroached, it is like a woman. Like a precious woman, a person that is being defiled by an unruly infiltrator," Berryhill told CBS 7. He then went to Twitter and defended his statement further.

The fallout of the Facebook post for Odessa’s Berryhill may have caused less enthusiasm for his candidacy. In his home turf of Ector County the turnout is low.

Over at the Odessa American columnist Bob Campbell asked, “Who’ll make the congressional runoff?” as if a runoff is inevitable. He quoted Midland County GOP Chairperson Sherri Merket. “I’m sure we will have a runoff, but it’s hard to say how much the turnout will drop,” Merket told the Odessa American. She hoped that with all of the interest that turnout will exceed 50 percent of the 85,000 voters.

The last congressman from San Angelo was O.C. Fisher. The former 51st District Judge served from the 78th Congress in 1942 until his retirement after the 93rd Congress in 1975. Fisher was among last of the old school rural and conservative Texas Democrats. He died in 1994 and there is a reservoir near San Angelo named after him. Outgoing Congressman Mike Conaway is from Midland.

Only voters in the Republican Primary Tuesday will be eligible to vote in the runoff. The runoff election date is Tuesday May 26, 2020.

All observers, including the Pfluger’s closest opponents, agree that Pfluger has the upper hand in winning the election Tuesday. The question is, can he beat the odds enunciated by conventional wisdom that he can’t win by 50 percent plus one vote on Tuesday, avoiding a runoff? Maybe he can, if 7,000 Republicans in Tom Green County come out to vote.

Tom Green County registered voters can vote at any of the following voting centers regardless of precinct:

• Angelo Bible Church - 3506 Sherwood Way, Lobby
• Belmore Baptist Church - 1214 S. Bell St., Fellowship Hall
• Calvary Baptist Church - 2401 Armstrong St., Fellowship Center
• Christoval Community Center - 20022 Main St., Christoval, TX 76935
• Celebration Church - 2639 Sunset Dr., Foyer
• Concho Valley Transit District (Bus Depot) - 506 N. Chadbourne St., Annex Building
• SAF First Assembly of God Church - 1442 Edmund Blvd., Fellowship Hall
• Grape Creek Community Center - 8207 US Hwy 87N, Gene Marsh Board Room
• Keating Paint & Body - 5050 N. Chadbourne St., Reception Area
• Paulann Baptist Church - 2531 Smith Blvd., The Chapel
• Plaza del Sol II Apartments - 4359 Oak Grove Blvd., Multi-purpose Room
• Southgate Church of Christ - 528 Country Club Rd., Fellowship Hall
• Southside Recreation Center - 2750 Ben Ficklin Rd., Multi-purpose Room
• St. Ambrose Catholic Church - 8602 Loop 570, Wall, TX, 76957, Fellowship Hall
• MHMR Services for the Concho Valley, Admin. Bldg. - 1501 W. Beauregard Ave., Jack Ray Room
• Veribest Baptist Church - 50 FM 2334, Veribest, TX 76886, Fellowship Hall
• Wesley United Trinity Methodist Church - 301 West 18th St., Fellowship Hall
• TXDOT - 4502 Knickerbocker Rd., Bldg. E, Training Room
• West Texas Rehabilitation Center - 1925 University Ave., C

In November, the winner of the Republican primary will face Jon Mark Hogg of San Angelo who is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. Libertarian Wacey Alpha Cody will also be on November's ballot.