NWS: Stormy Saturday Night...Maybe

SAN ANGELO, Texas — Residents across west central Texas are advised to remain vigilant as severe thunderstorms are expected to sweep through the area this afternoon into tonight, bringing with them the potential for hazardous weather conditions.

Conflicting forecasts from various models have created uncertainty regarding the exact path of the impending severe weather. Some models suggest that most storms will remain north of the forecast area; however, one indicates that storms could extend farther south into the Big Country and portions of the Concho Valley.

The atmosphere over west/northwest Texas is currently highly unstable.  These conditions are conducive to the development of severe thunderstorms, with the primary threat being large hail, although isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. It is anticipated that the morning activity will shift east/northeast of the area by early afternoon.

As a large-scale weather system approaches, additional thunderstorms are expected to form along and east of the dryline later in the day. The atmosphere remains highly unstable with deep-layer wind shear supporting supercells initially. These storms are likely to become more linear as the evening progresses. All severe weather hazards are possible, including large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, with some potentially strong tornadoes posing a significant risk.

The greatest threat for tornadoes is anticipated across the eastern half of the Big Country, into north-central Texas and Oklahoma, where a tornado outbreak is a possibility. In other areas, such as the remainder of West Central Texas, the primary concerns will be large to very large hail and damaging winds. However, embedded supercells within the squall line could also produce tornadoes.

In addition to the severe weather threats, heavy rainfall is expected, raising concerns for localized flooding, particularly in eastern portions of the region. Residents are urged to stay informed about weather updates and to take necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

The severe weather activity is forecasted to diminish over far southeast counties by early Sunday morning, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms expected between 7 am and 10 am. Conditions are anticipated to gradually improve throughout Sunday, with sunny skies and a high near 85 degrees Fahrenheit. West winds are expected to prevail at 5 to 10 mph.