Texas Faces 12% Chance of Rotating Outages This August, ERCOT Says

AUSTIN, TX — Texas energy demand could approach the state’s total electrical supply this summer, leading to a 16% chance of an electric grid emergency and a 12% chance of rolling blackouts in August, according to a new report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. 

ERCOT coordinates the flow of electricity across Texas, ensuring supply meets demand.

The report found that energy demand throughout the state of Texas could reach as high as 78,000 megawatts in August. That’s just below the state’s projected supply of nearly 83,000 megawatts for August.

The assessments come ahead of what is expected to be another scorching summer. Last summer, the second-hottest on record in Texas, ERCOT repeatedly asked Texans to conserve electricity as the grid struggled with record power demand.

During the day, power usually comes from natural gas plants and solar farms, but challenges arise around sunset when solar power wanes and wind power hasn't ramped up. To bridge the gap, ERCOT relies on natural gas plants and battery storage, especially during the critical 8 to 9 p.m. period.

ERCOT expects June and July to pass with minimal issues, forecasting a 1% chance of a grid emergency and a 0.27% chance of controlled outages in June if wind generation is extremely low. In July, those probabilities increase to 4.8% and 2.36%. 

Power demand set 10 all-time records last summer, and ERCOT anticipates continued growth through 2030 as oil and gas operations electrify and more data centers, crypto mining, manufacturing, and residents move to Texas.