12-Year Outlook, Texas Will Keep Getting Hotter, A&M Reports

SAN ANGELO, TX - Texas will get hotter and drier over the next 12 years, according to a new climatology report from researchers at Texas A&M University.

The new report, published by A&M's Office of the Texas State Climatologist, analyzed historic observations of temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather in Texas through last year.

Looking at that data, researchers identified ongoing and likely future trends for 2036,  the year Texas turns 200. 

The report states that Texas's average annual surface temperature in 2036 is expected to be 3 degrees warmer than the 1950-1999 average and 1.8 degrees warmer than the 1991-2020 average. This would make a typical year around 2036 warmer than all but the warmest year experienced in Texas from 1895 to 2020.

In that same vein, the number of 100-degree days is expected to quadruple by 2036 compared to the 1970s and 1980s, with more 100-degree anticipated days in cities. The report found that extreme monthly summertime temperature trends imply an increase of about 2 degrees over the past 50 years. 

The coolest days of the summer are also expected to continue getting warmer.

What do these trends indicate for future wildfire seasons? Nothing good. The report stated that, overall, the area of the state commonly impacted by wildfires may expand eastward. At the same time, higher temperatures will likely allow very dry conditions to develop earlier in the year, extending both the spring and summer wildfire seasons.

Researchers anticipate an additional increase of about 10 percent in expected extreme rainfall intensity in 2036 compared to 2001-2020 and an overall increase of over 20% compared to 1950-1999.

However, researchers noted that it is impossible to make quantitative statewide projections of drought trends because of all the factors at play.

What about flooding?

The report found that river flooding in Texas is projected to have little substantial change through 2036. 

"Assuming that the flooding trends in small, rapidly responding urban basins are driven climatologically by rainfall intensity, the change in frequency of extreme rainfall would translate directly to a change in the expected frequency of urban flooding: over 100% more in 2036 relative to climatological expectations for 1950-1999 and over 50% more relative to 2000-2018," the report stated. 

Anticipated increasing temperatures also apply to the winter. Researchers found that extreme monthly wintertime temperatures are expected to continue to warm even faster. That means typical wintertime extremes by 2036 are expected to be milder than most in the state's historical record.

What about snow?

Researchers reported that because the determining factor for snowfall in northwest Texas is typically air temperature, "a reasonable expectation is that snowfall frequency and intensity will decrease in the future, somewhat reducing the snow hazard." 

As for sleet, researchers noted that an expectation of a decline in freezing rain is tentative and "the magnitude of such a decline is as yet unknown."

The report states that due to complex trends and partially contradictory information between models and observations, researchers aren't confident in any ongoing trend regarding the frequency and severity of severe thunderstorms.

As for tornadoes, the most robust trend is the tendency to have more tornadoes in large outbreaks, "but the factors apparently driving that trend are not projected to continue."

Warmer temperatures will likely lead to less hail, particularly during the summer. However, "increases in available thunderstorm energy may lead to an increase of the risk of very large hail earlier in springtime."

For hurricanes, the report states that places along the Texas coast with the most significant rate of relative sea level rise may have a doubled storm surge risk by 2050 compared to the risk at the beginning of the 20th century simply because of the relative sea level rise.

Dig further into the data by taking a look at the full report.