Texas Public Schools See Sharp Enrollment Drop; Concho Valley Loses 1,200+ Students

SAN ANGELO, TX — Texas public school enrollment declined by more than 76,000 students at the beginning of the current school year, the largest single-year drop in modern history outside the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new report by the education advocacy group Texas 2036. 

The decline occurred despite rapid population growth in the state, the report found. 

In the San Angelo Education Service Center region, enrollment fell by 1,237 students, or 2.5%, from 49,576 in the 2024-25 school year to 48,339 this year. Winters ISD was among the districts with the largest percentage losses statewide. The rural district’s enrollment dropped from 552 to 501 students, a decline of 9.2%, placing it No. 18 on the report’s list of the top 20 districts losing the largest share of students with more than 500 pupils. 

San Angelo ISD has seen ongoing declines of more than 400 students since May 2025, according to information from the district. The district board voted earlier this year to close Reagan and Bowie elementary schools starting in the 2027-28 school year because of demographic trends and related budget pressures. 

The Texas 2036 report identifies three main factors behind the statewide drop: declining birth rates, shifting migration patterns and increased competition from private schools, home schooling and charter schools. Charter school enrollment grew by 2.4% this year, the smallest gain in at least nine years, while traditional independent school districts lost about 1.7% of their enrollment. 

The report’s authors project the decline to continue. The Texas Demographic Center predicts the share of Texans younger than 18 will fall to 18% in 2060 from 25% in 2020. 

Enrollment declines have already forced difficult decisions in districts across the state. Several North Texas districts, including Grapevine-Colleyville, Grand Prairie and Fort Worth ISDs, have closed campuses in recent years. Some districts, such as Coppell ISD, are exploring ways to market themselves amid competition from charter schools and other options. 

Public schools face further pressure from the state’s new Texas Education Freedom Account program, which awards education savings accounts that families can use for private school tuition or homeschooling costs. Similar programs in other states have contributed to public school enrollment losses, the report notes. 

The full report is available at texas2036.org.