Latest Poll Shows Talarico, Abbott With Narrow Leads

HOUSTON, TX — A new Texas Southern University poll shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race, while Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 3 points in their race.

The survey, released Thursday, Oct. 29, by Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center, found Talarico with 49% support among likely voters, compared with 47% for Paxton. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3%, while 1% of respondents were undecided.

Abbott leads Hinojosa 50% to 47%, according to the poll. Libertarian Pat Dixon received 2%, and 1% of respondents were undecided.

Early voting in Texas ends Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Talarico received favorable ratings from 48% of likely voters and unfavorable ratings from 51%. Paxton was viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 57%.

The survey found that 99% of Democratic respondents intended to vote for Talarico, while 88% of Republican respondents intended to vote for Paxton. Among independent voters, 54% supported Talarico, 38% supported Paxton, 6% supported Brown and 2% were undecided.

In other statewide races, the poll found:

• Lieutenant governor: Republican incumbent Dan Patrick led Democrat Vikki Goodwin 49% to 45%. Libertarian Anthony Cristo received 2%, Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick received 1%, and 3% were undecided. The survey found that 90% of likely voters knew enough about Patrick to have an opinion of him, compared with 53% for Goodwin.
• Attorney general: Republican Mayes Middleton led Democrat Nathan Johnson 49% to 45%. Libertarian Tom Oxford received 2%, and 4% were undecided.
• Railroad commissioner: Republican Bo French led Democrat Jon Rosenthal 47% to 46%. Libertarian Arthur DiBianca received 3%, and 4% were undecided.
• Comptroller: Republican Don Huffines led Democrat Sarah Eckhardt 50% to 44%. Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza received 1%, Green Party candidate Shehla Faizi received 0%, and 5% were undecided.

The survey also found that President Donald Trump was viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters and unfavorably by 54%. Another 1% said they did not know enough about him to have an opinion.

Texas Southern University surveyed 2,000 Texas voters likely to cast ballots in the November 2026 general election. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.19 percentage points.

The survey was conducted in English and Spanish from Oct. 21-25. Researchers contacted a random sample of registered Texas voters by text message and directed respondents to an online survey platform. The report said likely voter status was determined using a two-part screening process and information about past election participation.

The surveyed population was 40% Republican, 31% Democratic, 24% independent, 4% affiliated with another party or group, and 1% unsure of their party identification.

Women made up 53% of respondents, men 46%, and people identifying with another gender 1%. White Texans represented 58% of the likely voter population, Latino Texans 24%, black Texans 12%, and people from other or mixed racial and ethnic groups 6%.

By age, 18% of respondents were ages 18-34, 34% were ages 35-54, and 48% were 55 or older. Forty-three percent had a four-year college degree, while 57% did not.