Will Ballot Order Affect the Outcome of Highly Contested Races in Tom Green County?

SAN ANGELO – There are seven contested local races in Tom Green County in the March 2022 Republican Primary and one factor that has a huge impact on the election outcome is ballot order. 

In general, voters will cast ballots for candidates at the top of the ballot list more often if they don't know any of the candidates in a particular race.  

"While the ballot order effect is small in high-profile races for U.S. Senator, Governor, and Lt. Governor, it is larger elsewhere; in down-ballot judicial elections it equals or exceeds ten percentage points, the largest estimated effect in the modern U.S. literature.

These effects vary little with demographic and economic factors.

In down-ballot primary and runoff elections in Texas, the ballot order effect is huge." said Darren Grant, Dept. of Economics and International Business at Sam Houston State University in his project, 'The Ballot Effect is Huge: Evidence from Texas.' 

What that means is that average voters who are not familiar with any candidates on the ballot in a particular contest tend to vote for the candidate listed at the top of the list of candidates.  

Perhaps the most effected race in Tom Green County will be for County Commissioner in Pct. 4 where six candidates are on the ballot.  Tom Green County Republican Party workers Wednesday evening held the required drawing for ballot position for each race in the March Primary.  

The ballot order for Tom Green County Commissioner Pct. 4 on the March 1, 2022 GOP Primary is as follows: 

Lori Wilson

CoCo Simpson

Derrick Garnett

Shawn Nanny

Bill Ford (I)

Dustin Barton

Incumbent Commissioner Bill Ford has a five to ten percent advantage in the ballot order because he is the current office holder.  Without any additional mitigating factors like a long history of public service leading to widespread name recognition, the ballot order will play a roll in this primary contest. 

Grant's research applied to this primary would seem to give an advantage to Lori Wilson and CoCo Simpson because their names appear on the top of the candidate list on the ballot.  

The ballot order effect generally applies to races where there are more than three candidates.  

In the race for Tom Green County Judge, the effect might not be as significant.  The order on the March 2022 Republican Party Primary for Tom Green County Judge is as follows: 

Lane Carter

Joe Hyde

Tommy J. Usery

Todd Kolls

Since there is not an incumbent in the GOP Primary for Tom Green County Judge, ballot order is significant.  Grant's study would seem to indicate the two candidates at the top of the ballot will benefit from the effect some five to ten percent – all other factors being equal. 

Perhaps the best illustration on the ballot order effect for Tom Green County voters in the 2022 GOP Primary election is in the race for Commissioner of the General Land Office.  Here is the ballot order: 

Don W. Minton

Ben Armenta

Tim Westley

John Spiers

Dawn Buckingham

Rufus Lopez

Weston Martinez

Victor Avila

The candidates for Land Commissioner have several disadvantages; there is no incumbent, the candidates have very little name recognition, they are running for an office most voters know little about, the contest is toward the bottom of the statewide offices on the ballot, and there are eight candidates in the crowded field.  

Grant's research would seem to show that Don W. Minton and Ben Armenta would benefit greatly from the ballot order effect.  The frontrunner in that race, Dr. Dawn Buckingham, might be hurt by the ballot position because she is in the middle of the pack.

Ultimately, the voters who cast ballots in the March 2022 GOP Primary in Texas will decide.  

For more information on the ballot order effect, go here. 

For more on the 2022 Primary ballot in Tom Green County, check this out.  

San Angelo LIVE! will be publishing letters to the editor endorsing candidates in the March Primary.  

Letters can be emailed to [email protected] or [email protected].  

The GOP Primary election in Texas is March 1, 2022.