Fire & Rain Forecast Through the Weekend

SAN ANGELO – Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected to impact the area today, prompting the issuance of a Red Flag Warning this morning by The National Weather Service. With temperatures rising into the mid and upper 80s, relative humidity values are forecasted to plummet into the 10 to 20 percent range west of an Albany to Coleman to Junction line. Additionally, winds are anticipated to pick up, reaching speeds of 10 to 20 knots out of the southwest, exacerbating the dry conditions of the fuels. While the northwestern Big Country counties are poised to approach critical fire weather levels, winds are predicted to fall just short of the 20 mph threshold at 20 feet necessary to trigger Red Flag Warning levels.

Thursday will see a continuation of low relative humidity values, ranging from 15 to 30 percent, although winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, keeping fire weather conditions below critical thresholds. However, from Friday into early next week, cooler temperatures and increased chances of precipitation are anticipated to mitigate concerns over fire weather conditions.

Today is projected to be the warmest day of the week, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s, and even potentially touching 90 degrees. Despite the heat, record highs at Abilene and San Angelo, typically in the mid-90s, are expected to remain unthreatened. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph in the morning will shift to the southwest by late morning, intensifying to 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph at times. Although morning low clouds are anticipated south of Interstate 20, they are expected to dissipate earlier in the day compared to Tuesday as drier air moves in from the west. These breezy winds, warm temperatures, and dry air are conducive to fire weather concerns, detailed further in the Fire Weather section.

Tonight, southerly flow will return, bringing moisture back into the area along with low clouds after midnight. There's a chance of seeing some sprinkles, particularly east of a Coleman to Junction line, although precipitation amounts are forecasted to be minimal, if any, with most areas experiencing trace amounts or less. Overnight lows are expected to range mainly in the 50s to near 60.

In the long term, from Thursday through Tuesday, rain is in the forecast as the weather pattern becomes unsettled as a strong upper-level low situated over the southwest US sends disturbances northeastward across the Southern Plains, including the local area. There is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly from Thursday night through Saturday. The likelihood of rain decreases to a low to medium chance on Sunday and Monday.

While heavy rainfall and flooding potential are expected to remain southeast of the region, localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible east of a Brownwood to Junction line. Thursday will bring warm weather, with highs in the 70s and 80s, followed by a cold front sweeping through the area Thursday night, bringing strong wind gusts and cooler temperatures from Friday through Monday, with highs ranging from the 50s to 60s.