Which Undefeated Team is More Likely to Lose This Week?
SAN ANGELO, TX-- Heading in to the Area round of the Texas High School Playoffs, there are three undefeated teams from the Concho Valley: Central, Sonora, and Wall.
All three teams have had historic seasons and have also looked dominant throughout the course of 2017.
But which team is at a higher risk of their season ending this week?
Well, first off, anyone who straps up their helmets and steps on the field has the same mathematical chance of losing as they do winning. It's a 50-50 chance.
But not all matchups are equal. For example, the Sonora Broncos (11-0) take on Spearman (6-5) today while the Central Bobcats (11-0) square off with the very tough Mansfield Tigers (10-1).
Looking at Sonora's clash with Spearman, the records should tell the tale. The Broncos have only had one truly close game and that was against Jim Ned, who faces Wall today. Sonora scored 26 second half points to win that game 32-28. Spearman lost two of their last three games to close out the regular season before beating a good Coahoma team last week. To Spearman's credit, three of their five losses came in the front end of the season and also lost to state-ranked Canadian in week nine. That loss to Canadian was a 56-8 blowout. Sonora is a team much like Canadian and this game should play out like it did for Spearman five weeks ago.
The Wall Hawks (11-0) get Jim Ned (9-2) in the Area round and the Indians should not be overlooked. While Wall has been on a steady upward trend through 2017, Jim Ned is on a five-game win streak. However, Wall is putting up 52 points per game while Jim Ned is averaging just 38 points per game. Additionally, Wall's defense is allowing just 9.1 points per game. Wall has simply been unstoppable this season and this matchup favors the Hawks.
That leaves the Central Bobcats. Earlier this week, I predicted a Central win in a close game with Mansfield. I'm still sticking to that. But I would not be surprised if the close result I predicted swings the other way. Just as Central is more than capable of beating Mansfield, the same can be said of the Tigers. Against a defense allowing 10.5 points per game, it could be tough sledding for the Bobcats. That very same defense has tallied 77 tackles for a loss and 35 sacks this season. Led by junior Brian Otwori (6.5 sacks) and senior Jarrett Skaggs (11 TFLs), Mansfield's defense has signed a year-long lease in their opponent's backfield.
Does that mean Central loses? I don't think so. One certainty going in to this game is that Central will have their hands full tonight.